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Queens Fish Bar 12:30 Sun Oct 23
How real is this bank threat?

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/22/leading-banks-set-to-pull-out-of-brexit-uk?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other



Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.

Hard Brexit would put UK's skills and expertise advantage at risk
The dramatic claim is made in the Observer by the chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, who warns “the public and political debate at the moment is taking us in the wrong direction”.

A source close to Brexit secretary David Davis said he and the chancellor Philip Hammond had last week sought to offer reassurance that they were determined to secure the status of the City of London.

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However, the government’s stated intention to take control of the freedom of movement into the UK is widely recognised among officials to be a hammer blow to any chance of retaining the present terms of trade for banks, particularly given the bellicose rhetoric of major politicians on the continent.

The so-called passporting rights for members of the single market allow UK-based banks to offer financial services to companies and individuals across the EU unimpeded, yet the French president François Hollande is among those who have insisted in recent weeks that hard Brexit will mean “hard negotiation” and that Britain will need to “pay the price” of leaving.

A hard Brexit would involve the UK leaving both the single market, a cental pillar of which is freedom of movement, and the customs union, which could potentially reintroduce tariff and non-tariff restrictions on British imports and exports.

Browne warns that both British and European politicians who appear to be pursuing “anti-trade” goals need to recognise that “putting up barriers to the trade in financial services across the Channel will make us all worse off”.

Browne, whose organisation has been in intense negotiations with the government, further warns the EU that banks based in UK are currently lending £1.1tn, therefore “keeping the continent afloat financially”, and that this arrangement is at risk.

Anthony Browne, head of the British Bankers' Association
Anthony Browne, head of the British Bankers’Association, says the whole of Europe will suffer if Britain choses a hard Brexit. Photograph: Bloomberg
Of Britain’s position, he writes that banking is the country’s biggest export industry by far, and that the current trajectory threatens not just tariff-free trade but the legal right of banks to provide services.

He says: “Most international banks now have project teams working out which operations they need to move to ensure they can continue serving customers, the date by which this must happen, and how best to do it.

“Their hands are quivering over the relocate button. Many smaller banks plan to start relocations before Christmas; bigger banks are expected to start in the first quarter of next year.”

Sources close to Davis dismissed speculation that he believed a solution would be for the City to strike an “equivalence” deal with the EU, under which the regulatory systems are recognised by both parties through a one-off agreement. Browne writes that some Brexiters have made such an argument but that such a deal would not be enough to stop banks deserting Britain.

“On this side of the Channel, some high-profile Brexiters have poured scorn on the idea that we need passporting at all and that other regimes such as ‘third country equivalence’ will do.

“But the EU’s equivalence regime is a poor shadow of passporting – it only covers a narrow range of services, can be withdrawn at virtually no notice, and will probably mean the UK will have to accept rules it has no influence over. For most banks, equivalence won’t prevent them from relocating their operations.”

It has been reported that Goldman Sachs is among those drawing up plans to transfer around 2,000 of its employees to a rival European city should the UK lose its passporting rights.

The industry body, TheCityUk, has claimed that up to 70,000 financial jobs could be lost if Britain leaves the EU without a new credible relationship in place for the City of London.

European banks warn against political 'intrusion'
Browne says he understands the motivation of those who are seeking to take business from UK shores, but he condemns politicians who appear to be willing to break up the integrated financial market, which “makes it easier and cheaper for French farmers, German manufacturers and Italian fashion designers to secure funding”.

He writes: “It is understandable that other European cities want to attract jobs from London. Delegations from Frankfurt, Paris, Dublin and Madrid are all coming to the UK to pitch to bankers. I am pro-competition, and long may they try to make their labour market and fiscal policy more attractive to international investors.

“That is not the problem. The problem comes when national governments try to use the EU exit negotiations to build walls across the Channel to split Europe’s integrated financial market in two, in order to force jobs from London.”

The scale of the task facing the UK in striking a good Brexit deal with the EU has been put in stark relief by the apparent collapse of the proposed EU-Canada trade pact.

On Saturday,there were frantic diplomatic efforts to salvage a deal after Canada’s international trade minister, Chrystia Freeland, walked out of talks. She described the situation as “impossible” on Friday and cast doubt on the bloc’s ability to operate effectively after the proposals were blocked by a regional administration in Belgium.

The parliament in Wallonia is holding up the deal, although the region’s leader, Paul Magnette, suggested the standoff could be resolved within days. It has concerns the deal will undermine labour, environment and consumer standards and allow multinationals to crush local firms.

Hermit Road 12:34 Sun Oct 23
Re: How real is this bank threat?

It's in the guardian. Tha means it has all the credibility of an article in the guardian.

Queens Fish Bar 12:42 Sun Oct 23
Re: How real is this bank threat?

I understand your point. But even a low credibility doesn't mean this is a load of bollocks.

Mike Oxsaw 12:43 Sun Oct 23
Re: How real is this bank threat?

How big is a pair of bollocks?

, 12:46 Sun Oct 23
Re: How real is this bank threat?

Just a remoaners spin thing.

We are leaving the EU in its totality and everything will be hunky dory eventually.

threesixty 12:51 Sun Oct 23
Re: How real is this bank threat?

Oh well.. didn't want to say I told you so.. but..
I fucking did.

Cheezey Bell-End 1:12 Sun Oct 23
Re: How real is this bank threat?

The banks have been moving their IT depts away for years. And my last employer, not a bank but in the city, have been moving other teams to Poland, so I think it's realistic.

stomper 1:26 Sun Oct 23
Re: How real is this bank threat?

Whetever you think of Guardian opinion pieces, which is not evident here, it is generally a reliable news source

ray winstone 1:27 Sun Oct 23
Re: How real is this bank threat?

Leftie, shit cunt rag, burn it and all that read it.

Capitol Man 1:42 Sun Oct 23
Re: How real is this bank threat?

I wouldn't worry about it. The plan is clearly to make us a giant version of the Caymen Islands.

HairyHammer 1:43 Sun Oct 23
Re: How real is this bank threat?

We will see soon enough, but I would not listen to The Guardian experts on the other hand....................

stomper 1:49 Sun Oct 23
Re: How real is this bank threat?

You can come for us but we'll put up a fight! (If thats OK with you)

Face 1:51 Sun Oct 23
Re: How real is this bank threat?

This 'uncertainty' thing is creating a load of pointless posturing and threats.

Why would they move before Brexit is negotiated?

Basically they are pushing for what May has planned, but that means nothing as negotiations could go either way.

These greddy shitcunts will go where best, and judging by the ECB and Deutsche Bank, Europe isn't that secure.

I bet there are a whole bunch of lobbyists pushing and prodding, using the likes of the Guardian to manipulate the best outcome.

Infidel 10:37 Sun Oct 23
Re: How real is this bank threat?

This is a c&p from The Observer, a fanatical left-wing journal that refuses to accept the result of the referendum and is trying to do all it can to derail Brexit.

No banks - in fact no companies of any kind - will relocate out of the UK in the next few years.

Relocation is a massively disruptive exercise for any company. It's not a decision taken lightly. It's expensive, it hurts the business, you lose many of your key employees and you may end up worse off than you were before.

Any CEO who relocates now before Article 50 has even been triggered should be dismissed by their Board. What if the Brexit talks result in a very good arrangement for the UK? All that disruption for nothing??

And in any case even if all the banks leave the UK en masse we are still better off OUT. Democracy is not for sale at any price, neither is what remains of our national culture.

Hammer and Pickle 10:38 Sun Oct 23
Re: How real is this bank threat?

That's right, plucky little May government, not a plan or policy to its name other than to stay in power, holding out against the assembled hordes of rootless cosmopolitans, lawyers and relocating bankers.

Steady your pitchfork in your hand stout yoeman Face, you're about to have your semi-detached repossessed.

GreenStreetPlayer 10:39 Sun Oct 23
Re: How real is this bank threat?

I would see moving as more of a risk as there's a good chance the whole EU project will break up.
Where does that leave the banks then?

Darby_ 10:54 Sun Oct 23
Re: How real is this bank threat?

It just looks like the banks are trying to put pressure on the government as Brexit negotiations begin. Like a lot of other Doomsday predictions about Brexit, I doubt anything will come of it. As Infi says, the costs of relocation would be too high for whatever vague benefit they'd get out of it.

Hermit Road 10:57 Sun Oct 23
Re: How real is this bank threat?

Banks will do what they can to save money. They already outsource as much as they can to low paying countries not always with great results either. Moving to a high tax, high regulation EU country is unlikely to be as attractive as The Guardian think.

Willtell 10:59 Sun Oct 23
Re: How real is this bank threat?

I don't understand what the fuss is about. I live in France and no British bank or insurance company is allowed to operate here. Not even Santander which is Spanish or the biggest insurance companies...

What they are talking about is investment banks I'm sure...

bishbosh 11:02 Sun Oct 23
Re: How real is this bank threat?

left wing propaganda from the leftist loving Observer.

Sven Roeder 11:04 Sun Oct 23
Re: How real is this bank threat?

They are welcome to move to the dead parrot that is the EU.
The government should announce that any bank that relocates will not be considered for any government business and must immediately repay any quantitative easing free money which has been handed to them.
And those banks which are part owned by the government will have the stake sold to a consortium of U.K. banks.

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